Home

This is a campaign that will make sure that the patriotism of the quiet majority will be heard alongside the voices of the committed few. We share a common platform on this single issue because, along with so many of our fellow Scots, we believe that a better future for ourselves and our children is as a partner in the United Kingdom.

 

Alistair Darling’s speech in Edinburgh launching the Better Together campaign

 

 

Have your say ahead of the referendum

 

Welcome to the No Scotland Blog. Here you will find links to all the latest news and features on the Scottish Independence Referendum from both Yes and No camps.

Comments

  1. So the SNP and its cause has had a massive increase in support since the referendum, showing that Scotland is determined to have its own voice and in the view of many, justifies another referendum (even though that was theoretically not what this support is about?)

    And on the back of that, the SNP is probably going to put a rerun of the independence referendum in their manifesto next year.

    But is that true? Take a look at the calculations and figures below. They suggest that the total number of votes supporting the SNP in the election was probably around 1,475,700. This compares to 1,521,314 who voted ‘yes’ in the referendum. So in the election we’ve just had, fewer people supported the SNP than actually voted ‘yes’ in the referendum! To me, that doesn’t look like a massive increase in support for independence!!

    If you correct those figures for the different turnouts and assume that every SNP voter would vote ‘yes’ in a new referendum, then the ‘yes’ voters would be about 1,755,700 in number – marginally more than voted ‘yes’ in the last referendum, but still not nearly enough to win it.

    I think this landslide SNP vote is simply a result of those who voted ‘yes’ in the referendum voting for the SNP, and those who voted ‘no’ voting for other parties. That’s what the numbers seem to say – and the reason for the landslide SNP victory is simply a consequence of the eccentricities of the ‘first past the post’ voting system!!

    Perhaps the unionists don’t have as much to worry about as is being made out? And certainly doesn’t seem any justification for another referendum!

    But will be interesting to see what the next year or two brings! And how far the SNP try to spin these numbers as a massive increase in support for independence!

    ===============================================

    The numbers (some guessed assumptions here, but if you assume plausibly different guesses, it doesn’t change the conclusion by much!

    In the referendum, the results were as follows (according to various press web sites)

    Total number of votes cast=3,619,915
    Turnout = 71.1%
    ‘Yes’ votes cast : 1,617,989
    ‘No’ votes cast : 2,001,926
    Total votes cast : 3,619,915

    Now – that means that the total referendum electorate eligible to vote would be around 4,279,365

    Lets adjust that to get an estimate of the size of the electorate for the 2015 election since I don’t have the actual figures to hand. The referendum included 16 and 17 year-olds. Lets assume the same proportion of those voted as other age groups up to (say) age 80. I know older people will also vote, but the numbers have to be gradually dropping off amongst the elderly. Then – The subset of the referendum electorate that would not be eligible to vote in the election would be around 2/63 or about 3%. So the election electorate was probably around 4,151,000.

    The election turnout in Scotland was apparently 71.1% so the total number of votes cast in Scotland was probably about 2,951,350

    They said on the live coverage that the SNP commanded roughly 50% of the vote which means around 1,475,700 actually voted for the SNP across all of Scotland.

    If you think I’ve got these numbers wrong (quite possible), please tell me how, and where I can get more reliable numbers from?

Trackbacks

  1. […] I came across John’s post at a No website that tries to debate issues despite Cybernats bullying. John put it this […]

  2. […] An informative article on a No to Scottish independence website was delivered to me today. It adds another perspective to arguments by both Better Together and Yes to independence. For the full article, by North Sea geologist Joe H, see noscotland.net/comment-page-51/#comment-8465. […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 605 other followers

%d bloggers like this: